BlackBerry Cool

You know AOL bought Netscape for $4.2 billion, so I don’t feel too sorry for them losing out to Microsoft. I feel that RIM may be on the same path, they may fend off Microsoft for awhile but not forever. They will also probably be get boughten out and good ol’ Mike ‘my card, my life’ Lizarazoo will make a fortune.

You know AOL bought Netscape for $4.2 billion, so I don’t feel too sorry for them losing out to Microsoft. I feel that RIM may be on the same path, they may fend off Microsoft for awhile but not forever. They will also probably be get boughten out and good ol’ Mike ‘my card, my life’ Lizarazoo will make a fortune.

RIM has a much better chance to win than Netscape.

First, there is a much higher cost of switching back-end server software infrastructure than there is a desktop client. RIM’s current customers know that their solution works very well, and the amount of disruption to switch will be significant. You need to consider the total cost of the solution. Just because MSFT is providing the back-end software for free, there are huge costs to retraining, ongoing maintenance, new devices, security certification, user support etc. that argue strongly against swapping out key pieces of your infrastructure that are already working well.

Second, the whole Windows Mobile ecosystem is a joke right now. The handsets and devices to date have been less than enthralling. ActiveSync is one of the buggiest pieces of MSFT software there is. There is a lot of catching up to do here.

Third, the carriers are quietly afraid of MSFT gaining too much influence. They have seen their anti-competitve behavior, their moves into Internet Services, VOIP, etc. They don’t necessarily want to see MSFT controlling standards or other elements of the wireless data space where they hope to make a lot of their money going forward.

Finally, RIM’s got a pretty big lead in terms of installed base that needs to be replaced, both on the software and user side? Is anyone enamored of the idea of chucking their new 7100 or 8700 for and paying for a new Windows mobile device? Do you htink your carrier or your company is going to do that for free?

As long as RIM continues to innovate on the software and device side and maintains their good relationships with carriers, I do not see them losing their lead.

Rob,

You laid out some very good points, especially the idea that carriers not wanting Microsoft to control too much.

However there’s a few assumptions you’re making, first many of your points are regarding pre-existing clients. I’m with you that companies that have already invested a boatload of money into RIM may think more carefully about switching but they already have. Good has won over some Blackberry clients, but not too many that RIM is afraid of them. But Good isn’t Microsoft, Microsoft’s track record of coming into a market late and dominating is impressive, think Unix to Windows NT, Lotus Notes to Exchange, Word Perfect to Office, etc.

If Microsoft makes a better product which saves company time and money, then companies will switch no matter how many dollars they have invested into their pre-existing infastructure.

Rob,

You points are well laid out. but here are my reasons that RIM will suffer the same fate as Netscape not just because of MS but from others as well (read PALM, Symbian)

1. Email is the killer app but not the only app you can depend on. Corporates & Organizations are bound to move mobile and in my opinion the current RIM PLatform is the worst in supporting this.

2. Too little storage and i am surprised that they STILL HAVE NOT included a SD/ Flash memory support in the latest round of devices as well. The phone is becoming more than a communication device.

3. Developer dilemma. What do i develop on? Java OR RIM specific app? Hence adoption is going to be an issue.

But is RIM going to disappear as fast as NS. No. It will be a while before we can pry away the Blackberries from the current hands.

My $0.02

Ramesh

I have been using a 7100 for a month now. Before that I was using a Moto cell phone with office assistant (Pull email client).

The Blackberry’s only advantage is push email. Don’t get me wrong it’s a killer application, but the devices are not sexy, no cameras, few coustomizable features, even the slimest versions are much bigger than a cell phone, plus most office email already runs on exchange server so IT folk$ will certainly want to eleiminate BES licesnce costs.

RIM does have a huge dedicated user base and first to market advantage though.

So, basicly what I am saying is… This will be an exciting year for folks like us!

RIM will be fine if they continue to innovate. Netscape fell to Microsoft because they rested on their past successes and stopped being the innovators.

Doug

Just like in the ntp case… RIM will survive. The government uses blackberries for national security purposes. There is simply no security on windows devices. Long Live Blackberries!

Take a look at this….

Hmmm.. Interesting.. Keith Touche

http://www.betanews.com/article/Government_Steps_In_on_RIMNTP_Case/1131737744

One key piece – as long as Microsoft remains shortsighted (pretty much the definition of Microsoft these days), they’ll never build a seamless platform to connect to other mail systems like Lotus Notes and Novell. Lotus has about 40% of the market (although they are losing ground). I think MS has a ways to go on the wireless front.

RIM got where it is by innovating. But there are many more competitors now that there were even a few months ago. The only way to stay ahead is more innovation and more features with everything working as well as the units work now. If Blackberry just does phone and e mail, they will be passed by new hardware featuring Microsofts new features. Blackberrys need flash cards, cameras, I tunes, TV, radio. The world is migrating towards one device that does everything and Microsoft knows that so is trying to add these features. If Blackberry is the best but Microsoft adds the features people want, they will be obsolete the way Palm Pilots were by not adding features. Blackberrys are the best at what they do, but people want more features.

I wrote about how I am worried about RIM just a bit a few months ago when the beta of Exchange 2003 SP2 came out. RIM has to figure out a way to remain the number one mobile email solution for platforms other than Exchange 2003 and at the same time complement Microsoft in a BIG way.

I have both, and think I like the Win mobile a little better because of the ability to open attachments better, thanks.

bryan
http://www.easywindowshelp.com

I think windows mobile will crushed RIM, our company needn’t any additional server and settings, our employees can use their existing windows mobile or symbian devices, and what my employees most liked is windows mobile can synchronize their calendar