Calm Down Folks, No Possibility of Blackberry Shutdown

Comments

With the news of Judge Spencer refusal to enforce the previous disputed patent deal, the media has sensationalized the event with headlines of doom and gloom for RIM. The New York Daily News writes ‘Blackberry may get axe on E-mail’ and it’s even worst on the Blogosphere with less informed people exagerating the event. All this news tells us is that NTP is in for a larger pay day then the previous expected $450 million once agreed upon but later dissolved after the parties couldn’t agree on the terms.

Both RIM and NTP have reasons why there shouldn’t be a shutdown of Blackberry services in the US. First of all, NTP is a patent holding company, they have no actual real life competing product. Palm would probably have the most to gained with a Blackberry injunction, and others agree seeing how the stock rosed 5.3 percent on the news. NTP also doesn’t want to make any enemies with the Federal Government which heavily rely on Blackberrys. It was only after The U.S. Department of Justice waded into the patent case that NTP agreed that any shutdown of the BlackBerry will not affect government customers or emergency response personnel.

RIM has also made public that they have a working work-around that bypasses all the NTP patents. So if the Blackberry services gets shutdown, and that’s a big if, they have a strategy. However any work around would be closely examined by NTP and it would probably instigate another patent dispute case which none of them want. Our prediction is that RIM and NTP will settle for a huge amount, possibly in the 1 billion range so that both parties can move on from the case that has latest for 5 years.

  • http://www.StoneMonk.com/ Scott Curtner

    I entirely agree with your position on this topic, and I like your perspective.

    In my opinion, the reason why this bad press is spinning out of control is because RIM hasn’t fully addressed these 3 questions:

    1. Some people don’t believe RIM has a technical work-around (because no details have been released).

    2. People are unclear as to when an injunction could be actually be implemented, so they are acting like it’s going to be next week.

    3. People are unclear as to exactly what RIM operations might be shut down if an injunction is implemented. (i.e. Would SMS still work?)

  • http://www.StoneMonk.com Scott Curtner

    I entirely agree with your position on this topic, and I like your perspective.

    In my opinion, the reason why this bad press is spinning out of control is because RIM hasn’t fully addressed these 3 questions:

    1. Some people don’t believe RIM has a technical work-around (because no details have been released).

    2. People are unclear as to when an injunction could be actually be implemented, so they are acting like it’s going to be next week.

    3. People are unclear as to exactly what RIM operations might be shut down if an injunction is implemented. (i.e. Would SMS still work?)

  • GG

    Good points except for the fact that NTP has invested money into Good Technology, so in a way, they DO have a competing product. However, I do completely agree that a shutdown won’t happen. I think the judge will impose the injunction and give RIM 90 days to implement it. During those 90 days, he will not allow RIM to sell in the US, but will keep the network up. During those 90 days, RIM and NTP will settle.

    The ‘workaround’ is another animal entirely. The fact that the workaround is bound to involve some kind of architecture changes, will it invalidate the FIPS certification for government use? I would doubt that RIM would take that chance, but what affect implementing the work around would have.

  • GG

    Good points except for the fact that NTP has invested money into Good Technology, so in a way, they DO have a competing product. However, I do completely agree that a shutdown won’t happen. I think the judge will impose the injunction and give RIM 90 days to implement it. During those 90 days, he will not allow RIM to sell in the US, but will keep the network up. During those 90 days, RIM and NTP will settle.

    The ‘workaround’ is another animal entirely. The fact that the workaround is bound to involve some kind of architecture changes, will it invalidate the FIPS certification for government use? I would doubt that RIM would take that chance, but what affect implementing the work around would have.

  • GG

    Good points except for the fact that NTP has invested money into Good Technology, so in a way, they DO have a competing product. However, I do completely agree that a shutdown won’t happen. I think the judge will impose the injunction and give RIM 90 days to implement it. During those 90 days, he will not allow RIM to sell in the US, but will keep the network up. During those 90 days, RIM and NTP will settle.

    The ‘workaround’ is another animal entirely. The fact that the workaround is bound to involve some kind of architecture changes, will it invalidate the FIPS certification for government use? I would doubt that RIM would take that chance, but what affect implementing the work around would have.

  • douglas

    You idiot NTP doesn’t have NO technology it’s just a patent company. Do your research you moron.

  • douglas

    You idiot NTP doesn’t have NO technology it’s just a patent company. Do your research you moron.