Things to look for in 2006

Posted
by
Kyle McInnes
on January 3, 2006, at 9:01 AM
in News
.
Comments: 2 responses
2 Comments

2005 was a milestone year for RIM, they passed the 6 million subscriber mark and have had huge mainstream success with their Blackberry devices. It has also been a good year for the wireless industry, carrier revenues are increasing thanks to all the value-added services like data plans and media content and we have also seen a great number of high bandwidth devices. 2006 should continue the trend and we have some predictions:

1. RIM will pass the 10 million subscriber mark thanks to key carrier signings in other countries and a new device that has more mass appeal.

2. Microsoft will continue to make inroads in the wireless industry with Windows Mobile 5.0. However their new push-email technology in Exchange SP2 will still lack behind RIM’s and it won’t make much of a splash.


3. Big things from Nokia regarding new devices geared towards the business crowd. They bought out Intellisync in 2005, so this is the year we will see what they plan on doing with their new acquisition.

4. EDGE and EVDO will become standard in most new cellular devices, while 3G continues to struggle. Also don’t expect for North American carriers to become more data friendly, expect the same price points for data plans and content.

5. WiMax what? Don’t expect anything big from WiMax in 2006, it will continue to struggle to find a place.

6. The death of PalmOS. Palm will continue to use the OS in their PDA devices but will shortly phase that out. However, regarding PalmOS and the Treo, expect that to be dead completely in the new year. Palm will continue to release new Treo devices powere by Windows Mobile in their new models, doesn’t make much sense for them to have Treo’s with different OS models.

7. Expect one of the smaller push email companies to be bought out, our bet is on Visto.

8. The saga between NTP and RIM will continue in 2006, no settlement will be made and they will continue to battle within the courts. This is our boldest prediction, many analysts are predicting or calling for a settlement but we can’t see it happening especially with NTP patents being voided by USPTO.

Feel free to add your own …

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  • GG

    Intersting.

    1. 10 million subs is not likely. This would require RIM to double their current subscriber base. In other words, over 1 million new subscriptions per quarter. The subscriber growth has slowed over the last two quarters and that is before alot of the new devices (Treo 700, Motorola Q, Nokia E61) have even hit.

    2. Agreed. Microsoft won’t have a competing enterprise product for 12-18 months and by then RIM and others will be far ahead.

    3. Agreed.

    4. Partially agree. Data prices will drop slightly this year on the PDA side, but not much. Part of the reason they won’t drop is because of Microsoft. Their new product commoditizes the carrier bandwidth so the carriers get no $$$ for users of the new Microsoft ‘push’ email outside of the regular monthly data charges.

    5.Agree 100%

    6. I disagree. There are a ton of loyal Palm OS users and Palm has already announced a new Treo 700 using the Palm OS. The Palm OS will eventually die out, but not for a couple of years.

    7. Consolidation has already started in the space and I agree, it will continue and I agree on your call of Visto. Good Technology is the other option, however, I think they may be asking more than anyone is willing to pay and they have stated their goal is to be a stand-alone, public company. My prediction here is that Good goes public by the end of the year, depending on market conditions.

    8. This is a bold prediction, however, not too far off base, I think. While the PTO gives “non-final” rejections, this gives NTP an appeals process, this thing could drag on for years. The one hitch is how it affects BB sales and their stock price. The other factor is the Visto suit against Microsoft. I think this will delay release of the MSFP from Redmond. Microsoft will either pay Visto or buy them, with the latter being the option I think Gates will take.

  • GG

    Intersting.

    1. 10 million subs is not likely. This would require RIM to double their current subscriber base. In other words, over 1 million new subscriptions per quarter. The subscriber growth has slowed over the last two quarters and that is before alot of the new devices (Treo 700, Motorola Q, Nokia E61) have even hit.

    2. Agreed. Microsoft won’t have a competing enterprise product for 12-18 months and by then RIM and others will be far ahead.

    3. Agreed.

    4. Partially agree. Data prices will drop slightly this year on the PDA side, but not much. Part of the reason they won’t drop is because of Microsoft. Their new product commoditizes the carrier bandwidth so the carriers get no $$$ for users of the new Microsoft ‘push’ email outside of the regular monthly data charges.

    5.Agree 100%

    6. I disagree. There are a ton of loyal Palm OS users and Palm has already announced a new Treo 700 using the Palm OS. The Palm OS will eventually die out, but not for a couple of years.

    7. Consolidation has already started in the space and I agree, it will continue and I agree on your call of Visto. Good Technology is the other option, however, I think they may be asking more than anyone is willing to pay and they have stated their goal is to be a stand-alone, public company. My prediction here is that Good goes public by the end of the year, depending on market conditions.

    8. This is a bold prediction, however, not too far off base, I think. While the PTO gives “non-final” rejections, this gives NTP an appeals process, this thing could drag on for years. The one hitch is how it affects BB sales and their stock price. The other factor is the Visto suit against Microsoft. I think this will delay release of the MSFP from Redmond. Microsoft will either pay Visto or buy them, with the latter being the option I think Gates will take.