AfterThought: Are the days of the smartphone numbered?

Comments

I’m kind of an odd egg, as is I suppose evidenced by the fact that I use phrases like “odd egg.” The thing is, just about the time that ‘everyone knows’ something, I start questioning the basic assumptions of what ‘everyone knows.’ It isn’t that the common wisdom is always wrong, because it isn’t. However, I have noticed that once ‘everyone knows’ something, it tends to take on a life of its own, where people stop thinking about the reasons behind the ‘fact’ and just take it as a given because ‘everyone knows’ it is true. In this spirit, I have to ask, are the days of the smartphone numbered?

It seems counterintuitive, but then most good questions do. Phones are getting smarter every day, and all the big guys are competing to see who can make the smartest phone that does the most neat stuff. They have cameras, and media players, and color screens, and GPS, they play games, they have keyboards, they can connect to your email, and store you calender, and manage your contacts. Why would anyone want to go back to just a phone? Well, the answer is actually pretty simple, because a mobile phone is a technological end point.

It is a phone, you can take with you anywhere, and that is the definition of a mobile phone. We reached that end point quite some time ago, and now it is just an endless cycle of refinement to make a more appealing product, but the end point is still the same, a phone you can take anywhere with you. It is just like a personal computer that way. Sure, there are always improvements, but the goal has already been reached, a computer that is accessible to just about anyone, and affordable enough that almost anyone can buy one.

The smartphone, on the other hand, is a transitional technology. It exists somewhere in a grey area between a mobile phone, and a portable computer. It doesn’t have any set criteria it has to meet, except be ‘smarter’ than a phone. I really wonder if there is ultimately any room for the smartphone. Processing power gets cheaper and more energy efficient every day. Displays that can run all day barely sipping on your battery really are just around the corner. Memory is getting unbelievably cheap and energy efficient.

Formerly esoteric and almost forgotten about technologies like voice and handwriting recognition have quietly gotten quite good while no one was looking. Batteries are even slowly getting better. All of this really makes me wonder how much longer it will be until the slow but steady progress of ultra-mobile PCs reach their end point, and if there will be any room in the market for a smartphone when they do?

Just look at the BlackBerry. As we all know, it is an almost perfect extension to your email inbox, but do you really need an extension for your inbox once you can just carry your inbox with you? I’m sure there isn’t a BlackBerry user alive who hasn’t had to reply to someone “I’ll check that out when I get back to my computer” or thought “I’ll wait to reply until I’m at a real computer.” That is exactly the sort of thing that makes me wonder how much life is really left in the smartphone concept.

When I think about the future of mobile technology, I really don’t see people walking around with fancy phones with big screens that are covered with tiny keyboards, running scaled down connectors to the applications they use on their desk. I see a little device that is about the size of the battery of a modern phone, but that is in fact a wireless package and a battery with no physical interface at all, and then a Bluetooth-style headset that is your stupid voice-dialing phone, and then a handheld PC that lasts all day, and runs full desktop apps with a voice and handwriting-enabled interface that integrates with your headphone and little pocket wireless package.

  • CMP

    I tend to agree and yet disagree. I know it’s the “safe” route to ride the fence, but here’s my take…

    I think an ultra-mobile PC is a great idea, that will soon hit the market. Take the Sony (???) VAIO (I think)… it’s a small portable DayPlanner sized computer with a slide out keyboard. This is a great idea, but $2,000 for something that I can already do on my PC and laptop at home? It adds the inconvenience of a smart phone (i.e. keyboard size, and screen size) to a tablet PC. What makes it so much better? Or what will make the “future” models so much better?

    I can essentially do the same things on my Blackberry. So I can’t create spreadsheets or receive HTML email. I can however, respond to emails, and view attachments, and surf the internet. You need time to create a spreadsheet or type a word document. These things are not meant to be done on a handheld unit (IMHO).

    Now maybe I am trying to throw some logic in the fact that I have carried around a Blackberry for the last 5+ years, but I have become accustomed to putting events in my BB calendar and having them wirelessly sync to my PC, and creating notes on the notepad etc… If you let a smartphone/blackberry do what it’s supposed to do, and you adapt to it, it can take the place of ‘most’ functions from a PC. It may not do them as quickly or as easily, but they get done.

    Just my two cents…

  • CMP

    I tend to agree and yet disagree. I know it’s the “safe” route to ride the fence, but here’s my take…

    I think an ultra-mobile PC is a great idea, that will soon hit the market. Take the Sony (???) VAIO (I think)… it’s a small portable DayPlanner sized computer with a slide out keyboard. This is a great idea, but $2,000 for something that I can already do on my PC and laptop at home? It adds the inconvenience of a smart phone (i.e. keyboard size, and screen size) to a tablet PC. What makes it so much better? Or what will make the “future” models so much better?

    I can essentially do the same things on my Blackberry. So I can’t create spreadsheets or receive HTML email. I can however, respond to emails, and view attachments, and surf the internet. You need time to create a spreadsheet or type a word document. These things are not meant to be done on a handheld unit (IMHO).

    Now maybe I am trying to throw some logic in the fact that I have carried around a Blackberry for the last 5+ years, but I have become accustomed to putting events in my BB calendar and having them wirelessly sync to my PC, and creating notes on the notepad etc… If you let a smartphone/blackberry do what it’s supposed to do, and you adapt to it, it can take the place of ‘most’ functions from a PC. It may not do them as quickly or as easily, but they get done.

    Just my two cents…

  • http://www.kradest.com/ Krad

    The progression is slow. But i do believe in our lifetime we should see the finality if that is a word to computers and the cell/pda issue.

    What does a person need to survive in an internet age of today?

    -A Screen
    -A Phone
    -An input process
    -Content

    Solution- (Distant Future)-

    An implant, or small chip that syncs with your actual brain. What? are you crazy? ripping the matrix? no… let me explain.

    -A Screen-
    What is better than having a screen? not having one, but using your eyes as a desktop. Basically a “HUD” interface simulated by chip and processed through to your brain like sound waves.

    -A phone- or Voice communication-
    This can be easily removed where the chip can read your thoughts and actually broadcast your thoughts in your own idea of your voice to others. By simply thinking… “brian, are you available?” he can then thought reply.

    When this type of technology is available, you should be able to think of the person, and the person’s thought or smell, or idea will be linked to a human mac address.

    Input Process-
    No more carpel tunnel, your thoughts will be the input for data as well as voice.

    Content-
    Could really be anything that is obtainable over the internet, of course if you have access to it.

    —-
    I know the whole idea sounds crazy, but that is where i think it will be headed. People will be computers and will store data in their own heads…. privacy issues are always a concern.

    Also when the technology gets to this level, scientists will be able to turn on other parts of the brain that have been dormant in mankind. Possible use it for more storage space.

    Think, Johnny Nuemonic.
    __
    Lately,

    We have seen the quick departure of Pocket PC’s and Palm’s that do not have phones in them. They were quickly buried into a convergence device known as the smartphone.

  • http://www.kradest.com Krad

    The progression is slow. But i do believe in our lifetime we should see the finality if that is a word to computers and the cell/pda issue.

    What does a person need to survive in an internet age of today?

    -A Screen
    -A Phone
    -An input process
    -Content

    Solution- (Distant Future)-

    An implant, or small chip that syncs with your actual brain. What? are you crazy? ripping the matrix? no… let me explain.

    -A Screen-
    What is better than having a screen? not having one, but using your eyes as a desktop. Basically a “HUD” interface simulated by chip and processed through to your brain like sound waves.

    -A phone- or Voice communication-
    This can be easily removed where the chip can read your thoughts and actually broadcast your thoughts in your own idea of your voice to others. By simply thinking… “brian, are you available?” he can then thought reply.

    When this type of technology is available, you should be able to think of the person, and the person’s thought or smell, or idea will be linked to a human mac address.

    Input Process-
    No more carpel tunnel, your thoughts will be the input for data as well as voice.

    Content-
    Could really be anything that is obtainable over the internet, of course if you have access to it.

    —-
    I know the whole idea sounds crazy, but that is where i think it will be headed. People will be computers and will store data in their own heads…. privacy issues are always a concern.

    Also when the technology gets to this level, scientists will be able to turn on other parts of the brain that have been dormant in mankind. Possible use it for more storage space.

    Think, Johnny Nuemonic.
    __
    Lately,

    We have seen the quick departure of Pocket PC’s and Palm’s that do not have phones in them. They were quickly buried into a convergence device known as the smartphone.