Analysts for the most part have been parroting each other lately when it comes to RIM and its share price. At least one group, Macquarie Equities Research, isn’t listening to the hype and is giving RIM an Outperform rating and a US$40 per share price target. Kevin Smithen, senior telecom services analyst with Macquarie, believes that while RIM may be seeing some decline in US markets, it is far better positioned internationally than other brands. According to Smithen, international markets are reluctant to adopt the iPhone or Android devices due to fears of their high-margin text messaging revenue being cannibalized. Lower subsidies for carriers in emerging markets also make for higher margins for RIM on each BlackBerry sold.
RIM is doing very well in international markets with a 50% market share in Indonesia where 5.5 million subscribers have actually generated sales of approximately 10 million units. RIM sales in the Asia-Pacific region have nearly doubled in the last year, growing to 1.61 million units in the first three months of 2011 from 817,000 units during the same period last year.
It’s interesting to note that whenever somebody claims “RIM is dead” they won’t touch on some very basic points such as 1) international growth 2) security and 3) the potential roadmap with QNX. These are major advantages for RIM that doesn’t jive with the lazy, half-assed blogging from C-list individuals.